Predictability of the summer East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet in ENSEMBLES multi-model forecasts     

Chaofan Li  Zhongda Lin 《大气科学进展》2015,32(12):1669-1682

The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet(EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint,from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation,to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts,initiated from1 May,in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960–2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ,which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally,the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast,the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis,associated with the meridional displacement,and interannual intensity change of the EAJ,the second leading EOF mode,meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and,subsequently,summer climate in East Asia,using current coupled models.  相似文献   

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models     

Juan Feng  Jianping Li  Jianlei Zhu  Fei Li  Cheng Sun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1129-1142

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.  相似文献   

Processes Leading to Second-Year Cooling of the 2010-12 La Ni(n)a Event,Diagnosed Using GODAS     

FENG Licheng  ZHANG Rong-Hua  WANG Zhanggui  CHEN Xingrong 《大气科学进展》2015,32(3)

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Mesoscale surface circulation and variability of Southern Indian Ocean derived by combining satellite altimetry and drifter observations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

BENNY N. Peter  SHENBAKAVALLI Ranjan  MAZLAN Hashim  MOHD Nadzri Re  MOHD Razali Mahmud 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(9):12-22

High resoultion Eulerian mean velocity field has been derived by combining the satellite tracked surface drifter data with satellite altimetry and ocean surface winds. The drifter data used in this study includes Argos and surface drifter data from Global Drifter Program. Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) weekly files with a resolution of(1/3)° in both Latitude and Longitude for the period 1993–2012 have been used. The Ekman current is computed using ocean surface mean wind fields from scatterometers onboard ERS 1/2,Quikscat and ASCAT. The derived mean velocity field exhibits the broad flow of Antarctic Circumpolar Current with speeds up to 0.6 m/s.Anomalous field is quite significant in the western part between 20° and 40°E and in the eastern part between 80°E and 100°E with velocity anomaly up to 0.3 m/s. The estimated mean flow pattern well agrees with the dynamic topography derived from in-situ observations. Also,the derived velocity field is consistent with the in-situ ADCP current measurements. Eddy kinetic energy illustrates an increasing trend during 1993–2008 and is in phase coherence with the Southern Annular Mode by three month lag. Periodic modulations are found in the eddy kinetic energy due the low frequency Antarctic Circumpolar Wave propagation.  相似文献   

北大西洋秋季“三极子”海温结构对冬季大气环流场的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

时晓曚  孙即霖  孙雅文  毕玮  周旋  衣立 《海洋学报》2015,37(7):33-40

利用NCEP再分析资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度(SST)资料等,从北大西洋秋季海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化入手,对其影响后期冬季大气环流场的机制进行了分析。研究结果如下:(1)北大西洋SST异常与大气环流异常之间存在着相互作用;(2)秋季北大西洋SSTA具有较好的持续性,"正负正"海温异常空间分布导致12月巴伦支海上空500hPa位势高度异常偏高;(3)异常环流形势对应的海表面风异常场(SSWA)通过阶段性风-蒸发-SST异常反馈机制(WES机制)利于海温异常分布的持续及对上空异常大气环流的反馈;(4)三极子海温结构中负异常海温自10月份开始有自西向东的移动,风作用下蒸发加大,伴随上升运动自欧洲西部爱尔兰群岛出现自西向东移动的降水正异常区,潜热释放有利于冬季巴伦支海上空的异常高压脊发展。研究表明,北大西洋秋季SSTA通过阶段性海气相互作用机制影响海洋温度分布和大气环流异常,对后期冬季中国东北部的气候变化产生影响。  相似文献   

中国东海济舟岛南部春季水华的影响要素研究     

FU Dongyang  HUANG Zhaojun  ZHANG Yuanzhi  PAN Delu  DING Youzhu  LIU Dazhao  ZHANG Ying  MAO Zhihu  CHEN Jianfang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(3):51-58

A soil circulation occurs in the south of Cheju Island in the spring. Nutrients and its influence on chlorophyll a(Chl a) around the circulations were studied from April 9 to May 6, 2007. Spring bloom with elevated concentrations of Chl a was observed during the investigation. High concentrations of phosphate, nitrate and silicate at 0.6, 12, and 8 mmol/m3, respectively, were detected. A low water temperature prevented the growth of phytoplankton. Chl a concentrations in the study area might be strongly associated with the high silicate concentration.  相似文献   

区域海气耦合模式FROALS模拟的西北太平洋环流及其年际变率   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘博  周天军  邹立维  董璐 《海洋学报》2015,37(9):17-28

本文利用区域海气耦合模式FROALS(Flexible Regional Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System)对西北太平洋地区1984-2007年连续积分结果,对比SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)同化资料讨论了西北太平洋海表温度和表层洋流的气候态及年际变率。结果表明,FROALS基本能够再现冬、夏季季节平均的海温型,但均存在一个明显的冷偏差;FROALS对气候平均态的表层洋流有较高的模拟技巧,对于冬、夏季的表层洋流型都能够再现。另外,表层洋流的模拟偏差与海表高度的模拟偏差直接相关。由于模式模拟的黑潮热输送较观测偏强,使得模式模拟的海洋热输送倾向于使黑潮路径上的海温呈现正偏差。从表层洋流的年际变率来看,模式模拟的与ENSO(El Nio-South Oscillation)相联系的年际变率信号与观测相似:在El Nio年,北赤道流和棉兰老流增强,低纬度西太平洋海表高度降低,而在La Nia年则呈现出相反的形态,但是在模式中这种信号稍强于观测。  相似文献   

在大洋环流模型中对应于惯性内波破碎的垂直混合的一个参数化方案   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

范植松  尚真琦  张善武  胡瑞金  刘海龙 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(1):11-22

Based on the theoretical spectral model of inertial internal wave breaking(fine structure) proposed previously, in which the effects of the horizontal Coriolis frequency component f-tilde on a potential isopycnal are taken into account, a parameterization scheme of vertical mixing in the stably stratified interior below the surface mixed layer in the ocean general circulation model(OGCM) is put forward preliminarily in this paper. Besides turbulence, the impact of sub-mesoscale oceanic processes(including inertial internal wave breaking product) on oceanic interior mixing is emphasized. We suggest that adding the inertial internal wave breaking mixing scheme(F-scheme for short) put forward in this paper to the turbulence mixing scheme of Canuto et al.( T-scheme for short) in the OGCM, except the region from 15°S to 15°N. The numerical results of F-scheme by using WOA09 data and an OGCM(LICOM, LASG/IAP climate system ocean model) over the global ocean are given. A notable improvement in the simulation of salinity and temperature over the global ocean is attained by using T-scheme adding F-scheme, especially in the mid- and high-latitude regions in the simulation of the intermediate water and deep water. We conjecture that the inertial internal wave breaking mixing and inertial forcing of wind might be one of important mechanisms maintaining the ventilation process. The modeling strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) by using T-scheme adding F-scheme may be more reasonable than that by using T-scheme alone, though the physical processes need to be further studied, and the overflow parameterization needs to be incorporated. A shortcoming in F-scheme is that in this paper the error of simulated salinity and temperature by using T-scheme adding F-scheme is larger than that by using T-scheme alone in the subsurface layer.  相似文献   

北极海冰的年代际转型与中国冻雨年代际变化的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

牛璐  黄菲  周晓 《海洋学报》2015,37(11):105-117

基于1961-2013年HadISST海冰密集度资料,定义了北极海冰的季节性融冰指数,结果显示近几十年来北极季节性融冰范围呈显著的上升趋势,并分别在20世纪70年代末和90年代中期存在显著的年代际转型,相应地,中国冻雨发生频数总体上呈现出显著的减少趋势,但也存在显著的年代际转型。在20世纪70年代末之前,北极季节性融冰范围较小但显著增长,中国冻雨频数年际变化振幅较大,且主要受巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰的影响;20世纪70年代末至90年代中期北极季节性融冰范围维持振荡特征,没有显著的线性趋势,中国冻雨频数变化振幅减小,与北极海冰相关较弱,主要相关因子为北大西洋及北太平洋海表温度变化;而90年代中期以后,北极海冰融化加快,特别是2007年以后,季节性融冰范围大大增加,而中国冻雨频数处于低发时段,其变化与太平洋扇区海冰及堪察加半岛附近海温呈显著负相关,季节性融冰的显著区域也从东西伯利亚海逆时针旋转向波弗特海-加拿大群岛北部扩张,同时向北极中央区扩张。不同年代影响冻雨的海温或海冰关键海区不同,产生特定的大气环流异常响应,进而影响到我国冻雨。  相似文献   

Economic gains from introducing international ITQs—The case of the mackerel and herring fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic     

《Marine Policy》2015

Achieving a balance between fishing capacity and fishing opportunities is one of the major challenges in European fisheries. One way to achieve this is to introduce individual tradable quotas or similar management measures. In several mackerel and herring fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic, such systems have already been introduced on a national basis and the long term economic gains of this have been acknowledged. This paper takes this a step further and investigates the potential economic gains from introducing individual tradable quotas between countries. Overall, the results show that the gross cash flow can be improved by 21% by allowing the mackerel and herring quotas to be traded internationally in the Northeast Atlantic. This rent gain arises mainly from increased productivity by allowing tradability between areas and fleets. The analysis also shows that the Danish pelagic fleet will gain from increasing its share of mackerel and herring quotas, whereas the Irish fleets are incentivised to sell quota, if individual quotas are allowed to be traded among countries. This result is in line with the qualitative analyses that show that Irish fishermen targeting herring in the Celtic Sea are negatively oriented towards international individual tradable quotas, whereas the Danish pelagic fishermen have strong preferences for international individual tradable quotas.  相似文献